Photo Credit: The Des Moines Register
During the second Democratic debate in Iowa on Saturday, there was plenty of fireworks and face-to-face combat to satisfy even the tepid of political junkies.
Clearly, the biggest explosion of the night centered on Hillary Clinton’s perceived cozy ties to Wall Street https://goo.gl/lDt6hK . Her reluctance to use the term ``Radical Islam’’ also generated some buzz in twittersphere, coming as it did on the heels of terror attacks in Paris the night before-perpetrated by Islamic extremists that claimed 129 innocent lives.
The presumptive Democratic nominee hit another speed bump when she announced she was a child of the sixties, which only gave added fuel to Marco Rubio (R-Fla) who seized on her misstep to remind voters that he’s the future, not a flower child and protest monger from the 60s.
Still, when the dust settled, Mrs. Clinton crushed her rivals in the opening rounds on foreign policy, terrorism, and the threat of ISIS, at least according to public opinion polls.
A CBS poll http://goo.gl/vvFrSS (a random sample of 674 voters who identified themselves as Democrat or independent who watched the debate) showed that 51 percent thought Clinton won with a whopping 23 percent margin over her main rival, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Just seven percent of respondents thought Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland, won the debate.
But a closer examination of the CBS poll numbers shows Clinton has her share of vulnerabilities.
On income inequality, Bernie Sanders, the junior Senator from Vermont, thumped Clinton by a margin of two to one, while their views on jobs and the economy are just about even. Mr. O’Malley trailed far behind both of them.
Questions of honesty are yet another weakness of President Obama’s former secretary-of-state.
A resounding 86 percent of respondents consider Bernie Sanders the most honest of the three, followed by O’Malley (76 percent) and Clinton (58 percent).
As with most debates, there was a heavy onslaught of facts and figures thrown out; and even on one occasion, Mr. O’Malley dared the fact-checkers to double-check his statements on net immigration from Mexico.
What follows are some statements, worthy of closer inspection.
1.) Percentage of Female Donors Who Have Contributed to Hillary Clinton’s Campaign?
Debate Transcripts:
Hillary Clinton: ``Oh, wait a minute, senator. (LAUGH) You know, not only do I have hundreds of thousands of donors; most of them small, I am very proud that for the first time a majority of my donors are women, 60 percent. (APPLAUSE) So I-- I represented New York. And I represented New York on 9/11 when we were attacked.''
Fact-Check: I looked into Mrs. Clinton’s claim that 60 percent of her donors are women.
According to the Center for Responsive Politics, based on publicly available data, It's possible to say only that more than half (50.2 percent) of her itemized donors (those who gave more than $200) are women. http://goo.gl/d2ThJH, not 60 percent.
Of course, it’s possible, Clinton donors who contributed under $200 are 60 percent female, but that data isn’t available to the public.
The Center for Responsive Politics said amounts under $200 are lumped together across all contributors, and listed as one unitemized figure on FEC reports.
In other words, there isn't a way to examine contributor data by gender, because such information is not captured by the recipient committees.
You would have to sift through the data and make assumptions based on the contributor's first name.
Since small donors aren’t disclosed and since Hillary Clinton’s campaign is the only one privy to the gender breakdown of all donors, we are left to take her word for it that she was telling the truth that 60 percent of all her donors are female.
I tried multiple times to get the Clinton campaign to respond to my request, without any luck.
2.) Net Immigration from Mexico to the United States
When the debate turned to immigration, Martin O’Malley unleashed a bold statistic and then challenged any skeptics to fact-check his statement.
Debate Transcripts
Martin O’Malley: ‘Net immigration from Mexico last year was zero. Fact check me, go ahead, check it out.''
Hillary Clinton: `` Border security has always been a part of that debate. And it is a fact that the—net immigration from-- Mexico and south has basically zeroed out.''
Fact-Check: More than likely, Mr. O’Malley gathered his information from a Pew Research Center study from 2012 http://goo.gl/FSUAEY, which reported that ``after four decades that brought 12 million current immigrants—most of whom came illegally—the net migration flow from Mexico to the United States has stopped and may have reversed.’’
The most recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, however, paints a different picture.
According to the CBP Border Security Report (Fiscal Year 2014) published December 19, 2014, http://goo.gl/N1aWpP CBP apprehended 66,638 nationals from El Salvador, 81,116 nationals from Guatemala, 91,475 nationals from Honduras, and 229,178 nationals from Mexico.
Further, while the Border Patrol apprehensions of Mexican nationals in FY 2014 decreased by 14 percent when compared to FY 2013, apprehensions of individuals from countries other than Mexico—predominately individuals from Central America—increased by 68 percent.
Persons from Mexico obtaining lawful permanent resident status in the United States from Mexico in 2013 were 135,028, down from 146,406 from the previous year, according to the 2013 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics http://goo.gl/XW7HpO
Note: These figures would not include any of the visas available from the Department of State.
3.) African-American Youth Unemployment
During debate of the battered economy and hopelessness all too often experienced by many minority youths, Senator Sanders said that black youth unemployment has exploded to 51 percent.
Debate Transcripts
Bernie Sanders: ``African American youth unemployment and underemployment is 51 percent.''
Fact Check: According to the Director of Public Affairs for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the most recent (October) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for African-Americans ages 16 to 19 years is 25.6 percent http://goo.gl/huDLM0
4.) College Tuition in Maryland
After Martin O’Malley, the former mayor of Baltimore, took a beating from his opponents for the high crime and unspeakable murder rates that has beset the largest city in Maryland, he mounted a comeback.
On the sizzling issue of crippling student debt for higher education, O’Malley with a great sense of pride-informed the public that Maryland (under his stewardship) had four consecutive years without a tuition increase.
Debate Transcripts
Martin O'Malley: ``And we were the only state [Maryland] to go four years without a penny's increase to college tuition.''
Fact-Check: Maria Eugenia Alcón-Heraux, director of media relations for The College Board https://www.collegeboard.org/ confirmed for four years (2006-07 through 2009-10) Maryland was indeed the only state to go without an ``in-state’’ college tuition increase at the time.
Since then, however, Maryland has raised tuition every year and it is no longer the only state to go without an increase, Maine has not raised its tuition since 2011.
-Bill Lucey
November 18, 2015
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